Do you remember February 2022? Back then, the condo market felt like a contact sport. Listings disappeared overnight, buyers were stretching hard, and everyone seemed convinced prices would continue to rise. Fast forward to April 2026, and the mood is very different.

We have a market that’s seems like it’s trying to improve… but doing it in a pretty uneven way. Sales are ticking up. New listings are falling. Prices are still down year over year. And there’s still enough surplus inventory hanging around to keep anyone from calling this the start of a comeback.

Let’s walk through what the March 2026 numbers are telling us about the state of the Toronto condo market.

 

1. Condo Sales Actually Rose in March

Let’s start with the headline number. GTA condo sales were up 1.7% year over year in March 2026, with 1,422 total sales. That breaks down to 951 in the City of Toronto and 471 in the 905 region*. Up, but only marginally. Useful sign that demand is waking up? Possibly. 

2. It Wasn’t Just Condos

This part matters. Sales across all housing types in the GTA were also up 1.7% year over year*. So this wasn’t just one quirky condo stat bouncing around on its own. It suggests buyer activity improved more broadly in March, which gives the condo numbers a bit more credibility.

 

3. New Listings Dropped Hard

Here’s where things get interesting. New listings were down 16.7%*. That’s not a tiny dip. That’s a meaningful drop in fresh supply coming to market. And when demand starts rising while new supply is falling, the pressure can shift pretty quickly.

 

4. Rising Demand + Falling Supply Usually Leads to Higher Prices

This is basic market math. More buyers showing up while fewer new listings hit the market usually leads to rising values. Usually. But one month is insufficient evidence to suggest a possible trend change.

 

5. There’s Still Surplus Inventory in the System

Even with new listings down, there’s still surplus inventory hanging around. That’s the reason prices haven’t suddenly snapped higher. As long as there is a large surplus in inventory, we can’t expect any notable increases to real estate prices.

 

6. The Average GTA Condo Price is Still Down

The average GTA condo price came in at $620,479 in March 2026*. That’s down 9.1% year over year. So yes, sales improved. But values are still lower than they were a year ago.

7. Toronto Condos are Still Pricier Than the Suburbs

In the City of Toronto, the average condo price was $648,287, down 9.6% from a year earlier. In the suburbs, the average condo price was $564,332, down 8.3%*. So the city still commands a premium, but both markets are clearly still working through the after-effects of a softer pricing environment.

 

8. Condos are Still Well Below the GTA Average Across All Property Types

For context, the GTA average price across all property types was $1,017,796 in March, down 6.7% year over year*. That gap matters. Condos remain the lower-priced entry point in the region, even after their own price declines. For a lot of buyers, that keeps the condo segment firmly in play.

 

9. This Looks More Like Early Improvement Than a Full Recovery

If you’re looking for the clean takeaway, here it is: rising sales are obviously a good sign. They suggest confidence is improving. But prices are still down, and surplus inventory is still part of the story. So this feels more like the early stage of market improvement than some dramatic rebound. Encouraging? Yes. Confirmed? Not yet.

 

10. If Listings Don’t Surge, Values Could Start Climbing

This is the big watch item going forward. If demand keeps inching up and listings don’t flood back onto the market, condo values could start climbing from here. Not guaranteed. Let’s not get carried away. But the ingredients for improvement are showing up, and that’s more than we could say not long ago.

Putting It All Together

March 2026 gave us a much more useful condo-market read than a lot of the noisy headlines out there… which are largely referring to new build condos. Sales were up 1.7%. New listings were down 16.7%. Prices were still lower than last year, but the demand side of the equation clearly improved. That’s the kind of shift you pay attention to.

It’s possible that the market could be stabilizing. Possible… but this doesn’t mean we’re there yet. Rising demand plus falling supply usually leads to price growth over time… but one strong month isn’t enough to ignore the surplus inventory still sitting in the background. Watch the next few listing cycles carefully. That’s where the real story will be.

 

Final Thoughts

March 2026 brought a few genuinely encouraging signs to the condo market. Sales moved higher, supply tightened, and that combination can start laying the groundwork for future price growth… if new listings don’t come roaring back. At the same time, prices are still down year over year, so this isn’t the moment to spike the football. It’s a market improvement story, not a victory lap.

Much like the mortgage rate and financial markets, the housing market is riddled with uncertainty. Time will tell and anything can happen. 

*Source: Toronto Real Estate BoardÂ