The mortgage market is getting a bit spicy, with continuous upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates over the last month. After a brief period where it felt like we might be coasting downhill, the terrain has changed. Fixed mortgage rates have been climbing and if you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for a sign from the universe to act, this is it.

I get it. It’s only natural to want to wait for the absolute bottom of the market. Everyone wants to brag to their neighbours about how they snagged the lowest mortgage rate. But here’s the reality: the “bottom” is a moving target, and right now, that target has been moving away from you.

But have we seen the end of the upward trend in fixed mortgage rates? 

 

Why Are Fixed Rates Moving Up?

Lately, bond yields have been on an upward tear, which has been pushing fixed mortgage rates higher. Why? A mix of geopolitical tension, stubborn inflation pressure, and an oil market that’s gone full chaos mode. Oil prices have spiked roughly 45%, which matters because energy shocks feed inflation expectations fast. If oil stays elevated, transportation, goods, and operating costs follow. This has pushed bond yields higher, which have pushed fixed mortgage rates up with them. Simple. Ugly, but simple.

There was one domestic data point worth watching too. On March 31st, Statistics Canada released its GDP report, reflecting economic growth up 0.1% in January. This was led by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction support activities, while manufacturing declined. In plain English? The economy isn’t exactly ripping, but the parts tied to commodities are still running hot. That keeps the inflation conversation alive… and keeps pressure on yields.

At the end of February, the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield dropped to its lowest point since October, 2025. Then the war in Iran broke out, which resulted in bond yields spiking to their highest point since June 2024. At the time, 3-year fixed mortgage rates were in the high 4% to low 5% range. Substantially higher than the 3.89% to 3.99% range, which is where the lowest 3-year fixed rate is today. However, this rate range is far from mainstream, with most lenders sitting in the low to mid-4% range. 

If bond yields continue to climb, or even stay at current levels, we could see fixed mortgage rates climb further. But it’s now looking like we could be catching a break. 

 

Have Fixed Mortgage Rates Stabilized? 

Bond yields have dropped by roughly 5.7% in the last few days due to increasing optimism that the war in Iran could be winding down. This is largely due to recent comments from US President Donald Trump, stating that the war could end in the next 2-3 weeks.

Does this mean that fixed rates are levelling out?

Well… how much do you believe the words of Donald Trump? 

It seems clear that he’s now looking for the off ramp to this conflict, so it’s possible he could mean it this time. But with Trump, you never know. The markets have responded positively to the optimism with the bond market dropping and the stock market rallying. But will this continue? We’ll find out soon enough. 

 

The Cost of Hesitation

While we’re seeing a faint light at the end of the tunnel, we still can’t say if mortgage rates have levelled off. Waiting “just a few more weeks” to lock in a rate is a gamble that may not pay off in this environment. If you’re looking to buy a home or your renewal is coming up in the next four months, the time to lock in a rate is yesterday.

So, what should you do?

Lock in a rate to protect yourself against rising rates. This doesn’t commit you. Locking in a mortgage rate gives you a guarantee. Think of it as insurance against rising rates. You may not need it, but you’ll be glad you have it if you do, just like any other form of insurance. If rates go up, you’re protected. If they happen to drop (which isn’t looking likely in the immediate short term), we can still move you to the lower rate. It’s a win-win with zero downside.

Final Thoughts

The era of “wait and see” is officially over. There are many times when I’ll advise people to wait before locking in a rate. But this is not one of those times. Fixed mortgage rates have been climbing, bond yields are volatile, and the window to secure a relatively “cheap” rate is potentially closing.

Yes, it’s possible that fixed rates have levelled out. But this is only based on what we’ve been seeing over the past few days. All it takes is Trump to shift his thinking once again, which could continue to push fixed mortgage rates higher. 

At PMT Mortgage Corp., we treat you like family, providing the honest, no-nonsense advice you need to win in this market. If you want to see how we can help you navigate these rising rates and ensure you’re getting a better mortgage experience than you’ll get anywhere else, reach out to us today. Let’s get you locked in to ensure you’re securing the lowest mortgage rate possible.