Do you remember February 2022? If you were anywhere near the GTA real estate market back then, it probably feels like a fever dream. Open houses had lineups, “no condition” offers were the norm, and prices were climbing so fast it felt like the numbers weren’t even real anymore. Peak hype. Peak FOMO.

Fast forward to February 2026… and the vibe is totally different. Rates jumped, buyers cooled off, and sellers stopped getting 20 offers on a Tuesday night (shocking, I know).

But here’s the question you actually care about:

Are you better off buying in 2026 than you were at the 2022 peak when mortgage rates were substantially lower?

Let’s compare property values from February 2022 vs February 2026 prices, then we’ll run two mortgage qualification scenarios for comparison between the two periods. 

 

The Price Reality: 2022 vs 2026

First, the price correction is real. If you bought at the absolute peak in February 2022, you paid top-dollar. In February 2026, you’re shopping in a different world.

Here’s the average price comparison between the two years by property type:

 

You would think that the condo market would have dropped by the highest percentage. But the numbers show detached homes holding that title, falling by nearly half a million dollars. And if you’ve been waiting for prices to “come back to Earth,” well… the drop has already been substantial. 

 

 

The Borrowing Power Shift

In early 2022, rates were in the mid-2% range. Money felt cheap. The mortgage stress test still existed, but it was a manageable hurdle for a lot of buyers.

In February 2026, mortgage rates are higher, so your stress test rate is higher as well, which has an impact on the maximum mortgage you can qualify for. 

Let’s run the numbers to compare borrowing power for each period. 

We’ll use the same numbers for each scenario:

  • Household income: $150,000
  • Property taxes: $5,000 
  • Debt: zero

 

Scenario 1: High-Ratio Buyer (Less than 20% down)

February 2022:

  • Rate: 2.54%
  • Qualifying rate (stress test): 5.25%
  • Down payment: $78,800 (10%)
  • Amortization: 25 years
  • Maximum purchase price: $788,000
  • Maximum mortgage amount: $709,200 + $21,985 CMHC (or Sagen or Canada Guaranty) premium = $731,185 total

 

February 2026 (Today):

  • Rate: 3.94%
  • Qualifying rate (stress test): 5.94%
  • Down payment: $78,800
  • Amortization: 30 years
  • Maximum purchase price: $788,000
  • Maximum mortgage amount: $709,200 + $23,404 premium = $732,604 total

 

Analysis: Even though 2026 has a higher mortgage rate (and a higher stress test), high-ratio (insured) borrowers will see no difference in their buying power due to the introduction of 30 year amortization for insured mortgages as of late 2024. 

Despite no change in the purchase price, you may have noticed the total mortgage amount is $1,419 higher. This is due to the 30-year amortization carrying a 0.20% surcharge on the CMHC insurance premium versus the standard 25-year amortization used in the 2022 example. So yes, it can help you qualify, but the insurance cost is a bit higher too.

 

Scenario 2: Conventional Buyer (20%+ down)

February 2022:

  • Rate: 2.64%
  • Qualifying rate (stress test): 5.25%
  • Down payment: $227,000 (20%)
  • Amortization: 30 years
  • Maximum purchase price: $1,135,000
  • Maximum mortgage amount: $908,000

 

February 2026:

  • Rate: 4.04%
  • Qualifying rate (stress test): 6.04%
  • Down payment: $227,000 (keeping it apples-to-apples)
  • Amortization: 30 years
  • Maximum purchase price: $1,060,000
  • Maximum mortgage amount: $833,000

 

Analysis: With the same down payment, your maximum purchase price drops by $75,000 from 2022 to 2026.

Now here’s the part most people miss…

While you’re losing $75,000 in buying power, the average price of a detached home (for example) has fallen by $471,549. So yes, the bank may lend you less in 2026, but the market is also charging you a lot less for your new home. 

A much lower purchase price is far more important than the lower mortgage rate. For example, if we use the 2026 maximum qualifying amount of $833,000 as a guide, the difference between 2.64% from 2022 and 4.04% today, works out to a cost difference $58,666 over the 5-year term (i’m leaving the pennies off for simplicity). So, yes, you’ll pay almost $60,000 in additional interest. But you just saved roughly $470,000 on the price of a detached home, putting you ahead by more than $400,000. Not bad at all. 

 

Why the Market Feels Totally Different (Even If the Math Is Better)

In 2022, buyers were driven by FOMO. People were terrified that if they didn’t buy immediately, they’d be priced out forever.

In 2026, buyers are running on “wait and see.” Less competition. More negotiating power. More conditions. More breathing room.

And honestly? That’s not a bad thing.

 

The “WOW” Experience in a Market That Actually Requires Strategy

At PMT Mortgage, we’ve helped clients through both markets… the chaos of 2022 and the “new normal” of 2026.

Here’s the truth: today’s market rewards strategy. The best deal isn’t always the lowest posted rate. it’s the mortgage that fits your real life… and doesn’t handcuff you later.

If you’re feeling stuck, don’t overthink it. Get a plan. Get a proper pre-approval. And get someone on your side who will actually run the numbers with you.

Whether you’re buying your first home, refinancing to lower payments, or heading into a 2026 mortgage renewal and wondering if your bank is about to pull a fast one… we can help. Contact us today to get a mortgage solution specifically tailored to you personally.

 

Is Now the Right Time to Buy?

I get asked this every single day. The honest answer? It depends on your goals… and your timeline.

If you’re waiting for prices to drop another 20%, then you could be waiting a long time.

If you’re waiting for rates to go back to 2%… don’t hold your breath. Those were black swan rates. Different era.

The real advantage of buying in 2026 versus 2022 is simple:

Leverage.

In 2022, sellers had all the power. In 2026, you can negotiate. You can add conditions. You take your time before committing to the biggest purchase of your life. That’s a real edge.

 

Final Thoughts

February 2022 vs February 2026 is a perfect reminder that the mortgage rate is only half the story. Home prices are the other half. Yes, rates are higher than they were four years ago, but home prices are down substantially, and it’s the home price that is most important. 

The math clearly shows that even with higher borrowing costs, the massive drop in purchase prices has left today’s buyers in a much stronger financial position over the long term. Buying high and borrowing cheap isn’t nearly as effective as buying low and borrowing at a fair market rate.

If you’re looking for a cost savings strategy with your mortgage, if you have a purchase closing within 120 days, or renewal fast approaching, reach out to us today and we’ll let you know the lowest mortgage rates you’ll be eligible for.